If the latest forecast by the Urban Land Institute (ULI) is correct, the Dallas area will see a turn around in housing prices as soon as 2013.
In the Real Estate Consensus Forecast, released last week, a group of 38 leading real estate economists and analysts projected broad improvements for the nation’s economy, including a drop in the unemployment rate and moderate GDP growth over the next two years.
“While geopolitical and global economic events could change the forecast going forward, what we see in this survey is confidence that the U.S. real estate economy has weathered the brunt of the recent financial storm and is poised for significant improvement over the next three years,” said ULI CEO Patrick L. Phillips in an interview with DSNews.com.
Average home prices should stabilize in 2012, the forecast notes, and begin to rise in 2013. Analysts also predict that housing starts should double by 2014, with single-family housing starts jumping from an expected 500,000 this year to 800,000 in 2014.
Based on the population growth of Texas and the continued migration of the population from the northern states to the south, we believe the new demand for housing will drive housing construction in Texas, especially North Texas, in 2013. Many undeveloped areas north of Dallas should begin to see development again. Even so, we don’t expect the same level of massive growth that we saw from 2000-2008, nor do we expect to see new, expansive subdivisions of huge houses (4,000+ square foot). Buyers are shifting to more economical houses, which means smaller, more efficient and more functional homes.
Similarly, housing price increases may be more modest in our area. Housing prices did not triple and quadruple in Texas, as they did in California, Florida and Nevada during the first part of the new millennium, which meant they also did not plummet back to much lower values after 2008. Texas and the Dallas area have historically have had smaller swings in housing prices. Consequently, we probably will see smaller increases in values in 2013 and 2014 here in the DFW Metroplex. In addition, if the trend toward small, efficient, and functional houses takes off, the demand for McMansion-style homes will wane, resulting in even lower price increases for many of the “big” houses built in the early 2000s.
If your current mortgage payments are beyond your means and you are considering a short sale on your home, please call our office at 972.342.0011 for assistance. We can help you negotiate a short sale with your lender, so you can look for a more affordable home and make a fresh start.